全球价值链重构的经济效应--兼论中美经贸摩擦的影响

2017年,中美关系发生了实质性变化,美国对华战略从合作走向竞争。新冠肺炎疫情下,中美关系更是面临新的不确定性,中美经贸摩擦将影响中美两国的经济,进而产生连锁反应,造成全球价值链的重构。利用2014年世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)和假设提取法,测算中美经贸摩擦和全球价值链重构对世界43个国家或地区的经济影响,并重点模拟中美之间贸易由国内供给替代对增加值和劳动力就业的最大影响。结果表明:第一,基准模型设定下,经济效应存在地区异质性,中国周边地区、美国周边北美自由贸易区受到的影响最大,反映了区域性生产网络的存在。第二,相对美国,中国受影响更大,增加值下降2.5%以上;其余受影响较大的国家有爱尔兰、卢森堡、荷兰;印度和欧洲大部分地区受影响较小。第三,中美经贸摩擦对每个行业的影响不同,受影响最大的行业为中国的家具制造业和其他制造业,计算机、电子和光学产品制造业,以及美国的航空运输业。第四,假设其余国家或地区卷入中美经贸摩擦,存在替代效应和全球价值链重构,部分国家或地区增加值和劳动力就业均上升,上升最多的为22.42%。建议深化实施"一带一路"倡议,主动与周边国家或地区开展经济合作,强化区域价值链的影响,同时积极培育和发展国内产业链。     

一种基于R3D网络的人体行为识别算法

现有的行为识别算法不能充分地提取抽象的行为特征，为此提出了基于三维残差卷积神经网络（3D Residual Convolutional Neural Network，R3D）的人体行为识别算法。该网络在三维卷积神经网络（3D Convolutional Neural Network，3D-CNN）基础上加入了残差模块，可以更好地提取时空域的特征，然后通过改变步长大小进行特征图降维，提高网络效率，并加入批量归一化层和Softplus激活函数，提高网络的收敛速度和拟合能力；之后添加Dropout层，降低过拟合风险，并且使用全局平均池化层(Global Average Pooling，GAP)代替全连接层，克服了网络参数量过大的问题；最后，使用Softmax进行分类。实验结果表明，使用R3D网络在HMDB-51数据集上获得了62.3%的识别率。     

Narratives of global convergence and the power of choosing a measure

ABSTRACT

Research into the use of indicators in global governance emphasises the importance of which types of quantitative measurements of social phenomena are chosen, how they are chosen, and by whom. I contribute to this literature by applying these concepts to inequality measurements in the context of global income distribution. Any discussion of inequality includes an implicit normative comparison of distributions and the choice of measure will affect these comparisons. I argue that these seemingly technical methodological choices are actually value-laden, and may have effects on public perceptions and even policy outcomes. In particular, I focus on some influential research results concerning global income distribution and illustrate how a change in measurement choice can put these familiar findings in a new light. I also make a contribution by applying the concepts used to evaluate pro-poor growth – usually reserved for within country studies – to the question of global between-country convergence.     

Foreign sourcing and exporting

The aim of this paper was analysing the role of sourcing intermediate inputs internationally on export decisions and distinguishing whether intermediates are sourced from firms belonging to the same business group or from independent suppliers. To analyse firms' export decisions, we use a specification that also accounts for sunk costs and accumulated experience in export markets (i.e., export market learning). We consider that importing intermediates might have direct and indirect effects (operating through enhanced productivity) on the export participation decision. The direct effects on exporting are isolated once we control for productivity and the effects of belonging to an international group. We use a manufacturing panel data set drawn from the Spanish Survey on Business Strategies (ESEE) for the period 2006–14. Both productivity and inward or outward FDI increase the probability of exporting. Moreover, our results uncover the existence of sunk costs and export market learning, and also the relevant role played by intermediate imports in firms' export choices. Their effects act both through the (indirect) channel of enhancing firms' productivity and through a direct effect related to product upgrading, more competitive selling prices or learning from the firm's import experience.     

How does consumers' Perception of Sports Stars' Personal Brand Promote Consumers’ brand love? A mediation model of global brand equity

Previous research on the sports marketing of global brands has focused mainly on the sponsorship of sporting events and the endorsement of products by athletes. This study reveals the unexamined effect of the impact of sports stars' personal brand on global brand equity and consumers' brand love. Based on global consumer culture (GCC) theory and self-expansion theory, this paper examines the influence of sports celebrities' personal brand on consumers' perceptions of global brand equity and brand love. Using survey data from 372 users of “HUPU”, our results revealed that the use of sports stars' personal brand (attractiveness, expertise, and congruence) was positively related to global brand equity and brand love. Belief in global brand citizenship has a full mediating effect between attractiveness and brand love but a partial mediating effect between expertise, congruence and brand love. Product quality partially mediates the relationship between expertise and brand love. These findings suggest that it is appropriate to use sports stars' personal brand to build global brand equity and increase consumers’ brand love.     

The effects of rising labour costs on global supply chains: the case of China’s cotton yarn industry

Rapid economic growth in China and India has resulted in rapidly rising labour costs in those countries. In this study a Muth-type model is used to assess the potential effects of this development on global supply chains using China’s cotton yarn industry as a case study. The model considers i) product differentiation at the yarn level; ii) imperfect competition in the markets for cotton yarn and raw cotton fibre, iii) input substitution between raw cotton fibre, labour, and capital; and iv) offsetting increases in the demand for cotton yarn caused by rising consumer income. Results suggest the effects of rising labour costs on the supply chain are modest, and easily swamped or obscured by the effects of rising income. Increases in industry market power (both oligopoly and oligopsony) have the same effect on the supply chain as increases in labour costs, raising prices to consumers of cotton yarn, and lowering prices to input suppliers, including foreign suppliers of raw cotton fibre. The combined effects of increases in labour costs and income have increased the factor shares for labour and to a lesser extent capital at the expense of raw cotton fibre.     

Adverse Welfare Shocks and Pro‐Environmental Behavior: Evidence from the Global Economic Crisis

This paper examines the effects of the 2008–9 global economic crisis on people's pro‐environmental behavior and willingness to pay for climate change mitigation. We hypothesize that the crisis has affected pro‐environmental behaviors through tightening of budget constraints and relaxation of time constraints. Using data from a large representative survey Life in Transition II, conducted in 35 European and Central Asian countries in 2010, we find that people adversely affected by the crisis are more likely to act in an environmentally‐friendly way, but less likely to be willing to pay for climate change mitigation. Our findings confirm the importance of time and budget constraints for undertaking pro‐environmental action, and highlight a potentially positive role of adverse, external welfare shocks in shaping pro‐environmental behavior.     

Peasant agency in Ghana's oil palm sector: The impact of multiple markets on food sovereignty

This paper contributes to the debate on peasant differentiation and market integration in the food sovereignty literature by examining the smallholder‐oriented oil palm sector in Ghana's eastern region. Against the background of loosening entry barriers in global value chains, and through an analysis of farmers' different positions in palm oil's multiple markets, we witness peasant‐like patterning of production and strategic market participation among well‐situated non‐contract farmers. We propose that such interface settings where commodity relations are present, but do not penetrate fully offer valuable entry points for revisiting the role of global markets in peasant reproduction in the Global South. We consequently argue the need to replace the idealized category of “peasant” with an analytical category that can recognize social differentiation and reproduction through partial engagement with commodity markets.     

论我国商品全球化采购发展趋势

近年来,随着电子商务迅速发展,国际市场的竞争也越演越烈,中国企业要想在国际舞台上站稳脚跟,就必须根据企业自身的发展现状和信息技术升级进行创新,适时调整采购管理策略,合理地利用公共资源,才能在未来完成以功能化采购为主导向创新型采购模式的转变。文章以我国全球化采购发展的现状为出发点,深刻剖析我国全球化采购的问题,并提出了解决问题的方向。     

气候变化背景下的共同但有区别责任原则

《坎昆协议》标志着共同但有区别责任原则从框架性原则转化为习惯法原则。虽然共同但有区别责任原则早已取得了世界各国的广泛共识,但其具体实施仍举步维艰。该原则的实施,可以通过各国提出具体国际主张,国际法院依据该原则支持在其他事实基础和法律渊源上所做出的判决以及运用多边治理机制等方式得以实现。